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Dan Simpson
Some reasons to be hopeful
Among them: Obama's on the job; Downtown's on the move
Wednesday, November 26, 2008

At the risk of readers believing that my edge has been blunted by the prospect of turkey and dressing, cranberry sauce and time with my children and grandchildren, I list below some reasons I see for hope and optimism on Thanksgiving eve.

• 1) The first is that President-elect Barack Obama seems to have firmly grasped the fact that Americans are scared to death by what is happening in the economy and is preparing to attack the problem promptly and, we hope, effectively. The problems include ghastly job prospects, tumbling losses in the value of our assets and a horrid feeling that all the outgoing Bush administration knows to do about it is shovel more of our cash to "Citigrope" and the other banks.

And, anyone with half a brain knows that more is coming. The worst may be the coming crisis of credit-card debt, although that may be matched by inflation as the government borrows or prints money to cover the hundreds of billions it has given to the banks and investment houses and the amount of their shoddy liabilities it has promised to cover. The total number being talked about is $4 trillion-plus.

My hope comes from the relevance of the two-year plan Mr. Obama announced Saturday and the competence of the people he has announced for his economic team.

• 2) The second impending development for which I give thanks is the upcoming homecoming of the 140,000 or so U.S. troops in Iraq. Mr. Obama is going to have to grasp the nettle on this problem -- there will be pushed in front of him many reasons to delay or reconsider -- but he cannot welsh on his pledge to the voters to bring the war in Iraq to an end.

Among those who will drag their feet as the Americans begin to go home are the Iraqis with a vested interest in our troops continuing to support their interests there; the American contractors who would like to make more money; the Pentagon, concerned about its budget being cut; the Israelis, the Sunni Arab states in the neighborhood and other foreign elements who like the idea of the United States anchoring the region; and the generally pusillanimous who are afraid of change, who have kept us in Iraq for nearly six years now.

But I am confident that Mr. Obama will hang in there and systematically withdraw U.S. forces from a country where they never should have been in the first place. In the process he will liberate some cash for the economic reconstruction of the United States.

What withdrawal also means is that fewer American Thanksgiving tables next year will be missing a soldier or Marine -- a father, son, mother, daughter or spouse.

• 3) Locally, I am delighted and thankful for all the construction that is going on in Pittsburgh and environs, even though the mess, the noise, the traffic disruption and the general confusion sometimes really annoy me. Whether it be the PNC building at Fifth and Liberty, the new hockey arena or even the holiday-orange cones that PennDOT put around to make driving anywhere a potential nightmare, I am glad for them. It all means that the city might be going somewhere, in spite of population loss, schools on a starvation budget, a potential transit strike and an embarrassing mayor who organized a $500-a-plate event today to finance his so-far unopposed campaign next year.

• 4) Also locally, I am thankful for the Steelers' reasonably successful season so far. I particularly like the excitement they bring to each match. How many times can they fail to score a touchdown from "first and goal" and still win? Think of the thrill of the game against the 1-8-1 Cincinnati Bengals when it was 10-7 at the half.

• 5) As a connoisseur of the international scene, some of what I am thankful for is in that domain. My favorite is the Australian Navy, which has given most of its sailors two months of paid vacation off for the holidays, from December to February. It's summer down there and the surf's up. A senior Australian Navy official said that the move would not adversely impact Australian national security. Meanwhile, the United States military budget for next year is estimated at more than $500 billion.

• 6) A second international development that, I must admit, cheers me up a bit is the fact that China, too, is feeling some of the economic pain that we are feeling. The phenomenon -- feeling pleasure at the problems of others -- is called schadenfreude.

With the Chinese, it is not that I wish them ill, but this year in particular Americans have been reminded probably more often than necessary that China is moving up on us as a world power as we slow down. A relevant quote comes from the late Satchel Paige. "Don't look back, something might be gaining on you."

We are allowed to feel a little better if we look back and see the dragon limping a little, as opposed to gaining on us, even if it is from the rocky ground that we are forcing him to traverse in the form of our own economy's ills.

• 7) In the international field, there are other little bits of reasons to be thankful. One is the situation of Kenya. It seems to have survived a hard year. Elections held last December were disputed and led to tribal violence.

The first good news was that Kenyans saw reason and worked out a compromise solution. One candidate ended up as president; the other, as prime minister.

Then, in November, came the whipped cream on the pumpkin pie, the marshmallow on the sweet potatoes. Barack Obama, whose father was Kenyan, was elected president of the United States. Even though Mr. Obama won't dare favor Kenya in international relations or in aid, the pride of the Kenyans that a half-son of their country was elected the leader of America sent them over the moon.

Seeing their pleasure is a tribute to the respect with which we are still held in the world, in spite of all. It also underlines the symbolic aspect of Mr. Obama's election. He's black in America's idiosyncratic terms; in foreign eyes he is literally African and American. It's fine either way, as long as he tackles the problem of our wretched economy with alacrity. I believe he will.

Dan Simpson, a former U.S. ambassador, is an associate editor for the Post-Gazette (dsimpson@post-gazette.com, 412 263-1976). More articles by this author
First published on November 26, 2008 at 12:00 am